Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Stopped out of OZL

Looking to reenter when we get a low

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

SPX Target

Look for 1097 on the S&Ps trip to 971. Despite the inevitable hysteria from the long only brigade, that is only one degree past a normal correction, not Armageddon.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Trade Number 1

Buy OXR.AX ASAP with a safety stop at $2.00, target $4.00 with a trailing protective stop to be recalculated weekly.

Confirmation of expected move in gold

My target, technically is 1500, a wave three up move with two 8 % corrections.

A conservative trade here would be to buy OXR.AX or Newcrest. I prefer Oxiana, because it is oversold and only just recovering from the Zinifex merger, the low zinc price and deleveraging of the australian share market.

It is not the quality of the hunch, but the discipline of the risk management.

Friday, July 4, 2008

Gold Technicals - ready to run to 1500 now imo

This view is aligned with:

1) Fundamentals -- move to financial assets with no counterparty risk.

2) Committment of traders on the CBOT -- formation bullish

3) Big Bull since 2001 -- They say the trend is your friend.

We need to design a trade that takes advantage of a *possible* move to 1500 for gold, taking in consideration the fact we can be wrong. the next post will consider such a trade.

This is where I post trade plans going forward

Really important to define the trade and plan it and then trade the plan. The purpose of this blog is to "keep myself honest" and maintain discipline. This blog will also give me the opportunity to demonstrate that one can drill down from a "view" about the world economy, geopolitical trends, long term cycles to select stocks that will perform and then use technical tools and trading discipline to extract the largest gains.

As for the "ethics" of trading, as we enter a major bear market in financial assets and high levels of inflation, only the fleet of foot will preserve wealth. The next ten years will see the biggest transfer of wealth from those who play by the rules to speculators of all kinds. Massive debt and the inflation needed to accomodate it means the world has been made safe only for the fleet of foot. Further as traders manage risk, they perform, with their capital, a very important social function.

Being a stock/commodity trader is therefore both personally prudent and ethically moral, and avoiding the pitfalls (failure to manage risk, gambling ect) should provide a great training ground for discipline and personal growth. Traders have nothing to apoligise for, therefore.